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Accuracy and EvasionEdit

During sorties, whether an attack connects or not is heavily dependent on the attacker's accuracy and the opponent's evasion:

  • Icon Hit : The accuracy of a ship, which determines how accurate your shots are. Keep in mind that this stat is hidden and there is no in-game way to see how much accuracy your ship has.
  • Icon Evasion : The evasion of a ship, which determines how high the chances are that you will evade an attack. Each attack calculates the evasion differently, but in all cases, evasion stat will suffer from diminishing returns past a certain point. Attacks that are evaded will be displayed as miss.

The following formulas are subject to change as further research is published.

Hit RateEdit

Each type of attack has its own accuracy and evasion formula to determine its hit rate.

The actual hit rate can be calculated as follows:

\text{Hit Rate} = \text{Accuracy Value} - \text{Evasion Value}

Observations:

  • Abyssal ships are usually level 1, with the exception of enemy submarines, which are usually level 50.
  • There is a cap on hit rate of approximately 97%.
  • There appears to be a minimum hit rate of approximately 10%, observable with Combined Fleet penalties.
  • A critical hit will never miss.
    • \text{Critical Hit Rate} = 0.01 + 0.125 \sqrt{\text{Hit Rate}}

ShellingEdit

The shelling formula determines the hit rate and the evasion of shelling attacks. Note that this applies to both regular shelling and carrier shelling, but it does not apply to night battles.

AccuracyEdit

\text{Accuracy Value} = 0.03 + W + \left ( 0.9 + \frac{\sqrt{N_{s}-1}}{50} + \frac{E_{s}}{100} + \frac{1.5 \sqrt{L_{s}}}{100} \right ) \cdot C \cdot F

Where:

  • N_{s} is the ship's level
  • L_{s} is the ship's luck
  • W is the fit bonus or overweight penalty
    • Check out this page for more info.
  • E_{s} = \sum^{\text{All Slots}} E_{acc} + E_{m} \sqrt{\bigstar}
    • E_{s} is the total accuracy provided by the ship's equipment
    • E_{acc} is the equipment's displayed accuracy stat
    • E_{m} is the equipment's improvement modifier for accuracy
  • C is the morale modifier, which is the following depending on your morale:
    • < 20: 0.5
    • 20-32: 0.8
    • 33-52: 1
    • 52 >: 1.2
  • F is the formation modifier, which includes the Combined Fleet:
    • Line Ahead: 1
    • Double Line: 1.2
    • Diamond: 1
    • Echelon: 1.2
    • Line Abreast: 1.2
    • Cruising Formation 1 (Anti Sub): ???
    • Cruising Formation 2 (Forward): ???
    • Cruising Formation 3 (Ring): ???
    • Cruising Formation 4 (Battle): ???

Additional notes:

  • Combined Fleet modifiers appear to be flat penalties but are still subject to further investigation.
  • Incomplete: Effects of AP Shells and Artillery Spotting are yet to be added.
  • Incomplete: Combined Fleet modifiers are missing.

EvasionEdit

\text{Evasion Value} = \left ( A_{s} + 0.15 L_{s} \right ) \cdot \frac{7}{600} \cdot C \cdot F \cdot R

Where:

  • A_{s} is the ship's displayed evasion (including equipment)
  • L_{s} is the ship's luck
  • C is the morale modifier, which is the following depending on your morale:
    • < 20: 0.5
    • 20-32: 0.8
    • 33-52: 1
    • 52 >: 1.8
  • F is the formation modifier
    • Line Ahead: ???
    • Double Line: ???
    • Diamond: ???
    • Echelon: ???
    • Line Abreast: ???
    • Cruising Formation 1 (Anti Sub): ???
    • Cruising Formation 2 (Forward): ???
    • Cruising Formation 3 (Ring): ???
    • Cruising Formation 4 (Battle): ???
  • R is the remaining fuel modifier. Assumes a value of 1 when the ship's remaining fuel is greater than or equal to 80% and decreases by approximately 0.16 per 20% of remaining fuel below 80%. (e.g. for 60% fuel, R = 0.84)

If the Evasion Value is above 0.5, the following soft cap is applied:

\text{Postcap Evasion Value} = \frac{\text{Evasion Value}}{\text{Evasion Value} + 0.5}

Additional notes:

  • Incomplete: Formation modifiers are missing.

Torpedo AttacksEdit

The formula which determines the hit rate and evasion of all forms of torpedo attacks during the day. This formula does not apply during night battle. The current formula is an approximation based on data regression analysis, and may not be as accurate as the other accuracy formulas:

AccuracyEdit

\left ( 0.94 + \frac{\sqrt{N_{s} - 1}}{50} + \frac{3 E_{\bigstar}}{400} \right ) \cdot \left ( 0.92 +  \frac{T_{s}}{500} G + \frac{\sqrt{T_{e} \cdot G}}{100} \right ) + \frac{E_{s}}{100} + \frac{1.5\sqrt{L_{s}}}{100}

Where:

  • N_{s} is the ship's level
  • T_{s} is the ship's basic torpedo stat (i.e. without equipment)
  • T_{e} is the sum of torpedo stats provided by the ship's equipment
  • G is the engagement modifier:
    • Green T: 1.2
    • Parallel: 1
    • Head-On: 0.8
    • Red T: 0.6
  • E_{s} is the displayed accuracy provided by the ship's equipment
  • E_{\bigstar} is the sum of all improvements to torpedo accuracy
  • L_{s} is the ship's luck

EvasionEdit

\text{Evasion Value} = \left ( A_{s} + 0.15 L_{s} \right ) \cdot \frac{7}{600} \cdot C \cdot F \cdot R

Where:

  • A_{s} is the ship's displayed evasion (including equipment)
  • L_{s} is the ship's luck
  • C is the morale modifier
  • F is the formation modifier
  • R is the remaining fuel modifier. Assumes a value of 1 when the ship's remaining fuel is greater than or equal to 80% and decreases by approximately 0.16 per 20% of remaining fuel below 80%. (e.g. for 60% fuel, R = 0.84)

Furthermore, the soft cap of the Evasion Value changes depending on the opposing fleet's formation; if the Evasion Value is above the target's formation value F_{t}, then the soft cap is applied as follows:

\text{Postcap Evasion Value} = \frac{\text{Evasion Value}}{\text{Evasion Value} + F_{t}}

Where F_{t} is the opposing fleet's formation value:

  • Line Ahead: 41
  • Double Line: 41
  • Diamond: 36.2

Additional notes:

  • It is known that formations affect the accuracy of torpedo attacks, but how exactly it does so is unknown at the moment.

Anti-Submarine WarfareEdit

The formula which determines the hit rate and evasion of attacks performed against submarines. It can be a depth charge attack or an aerial attack, as long as the target is a submarine.

AccuracyEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

EvasionEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

Opening AirstrikeEdit

The formula which determines the accuracy and the evasion against the Opening Airstrike that is performed by bombers during the opening phase. Unlike other attacks, the accuracy of airstrikes is not affected by morale.

AccuracyEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

EvasionEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

Night BattleEdit

The formula which determines the hit rate and evasion during a night battle. During a night battle, all attacks are treated the same, regardless of shelling or torpedo attacks.

AccuracyEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

EvasionEdit

No formula yet, currently under investigation.

List of Factors affecting Accuracy or EvasionEdit

This list displays factors that have an effect on accuracy and evasion of your ships in general. Due to the complexity of accuracy and its factors, it will be using the following format to list them:

  • Factor: The factor which influences the accuracy or evasion in some way.
  • Affected Type: Here, it is noted, which form of attack is affected:
    • Shelling: Shelling attacks during the day, including carrier shelling.
    • Torpedo: All forms of torpedo attacks during the day.
    • ASW: Anti-Submarine Warfare attacks during the day.
    • Airstrike: Opening Airstrike attacks performed by bombers during the opening phase.
    • Night: All forms of attacks that take place during the night.
    • ALL: The factor affects all forms of attack.
    • ?: In case it is still unknown which attack that the factor affects, or if there is a suspicion that it affects phases other than what is currently displayed, a question mark will be used.
  • Description: A brief explanation as to how the factor affects the accuracy or evasion.

The evasion list will only contain the Factor and Description headers in its table, due to it being less complex than the accuracy formula.

The list is only a summary of factors with a brief explanation of their effects, it will not contain any in-depth explanations regarding their application in the actual formulas. In case that is what you're looking for, you are recommended to check out the formulas above instead.

Note: Keep in mind that the list might not be complete, this will be updated in due time if more is known about the factors.

Factors affecting AccuracyEdit

Factor Affected Type Description
Ship Level

Shelling
Torpedo
ASW
?

Accuracy increases as you level up, but with diminishing returns.
Luck Icon Luck

Shelling
Torpedo
?

A tiny amount of accuracy can be obtained via Luck Icon Luck , albeit with very heavily diminishing returns.
Critical Hit ALL A critical hit will never miss regardless of the hit rate.
Morale/Fatigue

Shelling
Torpedo
ASW
Night

Ships with 32 or less morale will suffer an accuracy penalty, while ships with 19 or less morale will suffer heavier penalties. On the other hand, increasing your morale above 52 will give you an accuracy bonus.
Engagement Modifier Torpedo The engagement modifier affects the accuracy of torpedo attacks.
Equipment Improvement

Shelling
Torpedo
?

Certain equipment has been shown to increase accuracy proportional to the square root of its improvement level, with different equipment giving accuracy bonuses to different attacks.
BB Fit/Overweight Gun

Shelling
Night

Equipping battleships with fit guns gives them an accuracy bonus. Likewise, equipping battleships with overweight guns gives them an accuracy penalty instead. The fit and overweight guns are different for each battleship class and model.
AP Shell Shelling Using AP Shells together with large-caliber main guns increases accuracy against heavily armored enemy ships and installations.[1]
CA Fit Gun Night Heavy/Aviation Cruisers get increased Night Battle accuracy when equipped with certain 20.3cm model guns.
CL Fit Gun

Shelling
?

Using certain "Fit Guns" (i.e. 14cm and 15.2cm mains) on Light Cruisers will improve their accuracy.[2]
Formation ALL Each formation has its own modifier that affects each attack differently.
Artillery Spotting Shelling There is a high accuracy increase observed for Cut-ins, even with low Morale.
The increase is lower for Double Attacks.
Night Special Attacks Night Just like Artillery Spotting during the day, a high accuracy increase has been observed for night Cut-in attacks.
Likewise, the increase is observed to be lower for Double Attacks.
Night Battle Equipment Night Star Shell
Star Shell 101 Card
s [3] and Searchlight
Searchlight 074 Card
s[4] increases the accuracy of the whole fleet when activated.
ASW Equipment ASW Icon ASW stat on a Sonar increases the accuracy against submarines.[5]
Combined Fleet

Shelling
?

Surface Task Force: accuracy -0.40 for the main fleet and about -0.15 for the escort fleet in Cruising Formations 2 and 4.
Carrier Task Force: normal accuracy for the main fleet and about -0.35 accuracy for the escort fleet in Cruising Formation 4.[6]
Ship Class

Shelling
?

Light Cruisers have about 2% lower accuracy than other ship classes.[7]

Factors affecting evasionEdit

Factor Notes
Luck Icon Luck A tiny amount of evasion can be obtained via Luck Icon Luck , albeit with very heavily diminishing returns.
Evasion stat Ship's evasion stat, which includes the evasion you receive from using the equipment. Evasion has diminishing returns past a certain amount.
Formation Each formation has its own modifier that affects each attack differently.
Morale/Fatigue Ships with 32 or less morale will suffer an evasion penalty, while ships with 19 or less morale will suffer heavier penalties. On the other hand, increasing your morale above 52 will give you an evasion bonus.
Sonar Improvements Improving sonars will increase your evasion against torpedoes. Keep in mind that this only applies to torpedo evasion during the day.
Fuel modifier Any ship with a fuel percentage that is lower than 80% will start suffering evasion penalties.

ReferencesEdit

  1. https://twitter.com/KanColle_STAFF/status/520461746943696896
  2. https://twitter.com/KanColle_STAFF/status/600208207454146561
  3. https://twitter.com/KanColle_STAFF/status/479862934768582656
  4. https://twitter.com/KanColle_STAFF/status/438562857513254913
  5. https://twitter.com/KanColle_STAFF/status/438574201809543168
  6. http://kankoregouchin.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-60.html
  7. https://twitter.com/Xe_UCH/status/819905394864570370